Propane Market Metrics: Winter fuels outlook

November 18, 2025 By LP Gas 0 Comments

Winter weather and residential energy expenditures (Nov 2025–Mar 2026) (Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook)

Commentary: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that U.S. households heating with natural gas will spend about the same amount on natural gas this winter as they did last winter. Households heating with electricity will spend more, and households heating with propane or heating oil will spend less than they did last winter. The outcomes are different in EIA’s cases that assume colder or milder winter weather, except in the case of electricity, where the EIA expects households to pay more than they did last winter across the range of weather assumptions.

U.S. population-weighted heating degree days. (Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook) — U.S. population-weighted heating degree-days. (Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook)

The EIA measures winter weather effects using heating degree-days (HDDs), which are an aggregate measure of how daily average temperatures deviate from a base temperature of 65 degrees F.

The EIA assumes this winter will be slightly milder than the last winter across much of the country. It expects 5 percent fewer HDDs in the Northeast this winter, 3 percent fewer in the South and 1 percent fewer in both the Midwest and West.

You can read a more in-depth report here.