How the 2024 election could impact the propane industry

October 4, 2024 By    

It’s that time again – time to cast a vote in the presidential election.

Photo of NPGA's Michael Baker

Michael Baker is the chief legislative officer for the National Propane Gas Association. Photo by LP Gas staff

This year, Americans will choose between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

There’s a lot on the line for the propane industry in this election. The candidates’ policies regarding energy and business will have huge impacts on propane operations.

Michael Baker, chief legislative officer for the National Propane Gas Association (NPGA), sheds some light on the candidates’ policies and how each of them could impact the propane industry.

Vice President Harris

When it comes to Harris’ policies, there are a few things to consider.

On one hand, President Joe Biden’s administration has focused on electrification, and there are expectations that Harris will do the same if she becomes president, with a possibility that her administration becomes even more aggressive than Biden’s.

There’s also Harris’ previous voting record from her time in the Senate.

“If we look at Harris’ record while she was in the Senate, she has one of the most liberal voting records in American history,” Baker says.

Baker notes that some of Harris’ energy policies have become more mainstream since she became the vice president.

“We’ve actually seen her kind of dial back some of her progressive policies and change some of her positions,” Baker explains. “Fracking is a great example where she was against fracking in states like Pennsylvania, and now she said that she would not ban fracking in Pennsylvania.

“Three-quarters of propane comes from natural gas processing,” Baker elaborates. “So, if a presidential candidate is pro-fracking or isn’t against fracking or won’t ban fracking, that means that we’ll continue to develop those resources in those places which will yield more propane for America.”

However, according to Baker, Biden’s administration has overseen a heavy push toward electrification and away from fossil fuels, and a potential Harris administration will likely continue that push.

“If the Democrats are in charge, we’re more likely to see laws and regulations that may impact the propane industry in negative ways,” says Baker. “And we see that through pro-electrification policies that provide market incentives to promote the transition from traditional fossil fuels like propane or natural gas to electrification.”

However, a Harris win doesn’t mean it’ll be time for propane retailers to panic. As Baker notes, even under the pro-electrification, pro-regulation Biden administration, the propane industry has done well.

“There’s more propane produced today than ever before in American history,” Baker explains. “America is a global leader in propane production. We have more propane than we know what to do with. We’re a net exporter today.

“We’re in a good place today,” he continues. “We’re nearing all-time highs, so we’re in a good place for propane. So, it’s not as doom-and-gloom as people think.

“No matter who’s in charge, we are going to have a path forward.”

Former President Trump

Trump is a relatively known quantity. In his first term, Trump positioned himself as pro-American energy, pro-fossil fuels and pro-business, and he’s promising the same for this election.

“Under a Trump presidency, we’re not going to see electrification policies,” Baker says. This would likely mean no gas stove bans, no extra incentives to switch to electric energy and no extra regulations on the fossil fuel industry.

“Republicans are going to focus on the economy,” Baker explains. “They’re going to focus on the expiring tax provisions that were part of the quote-unquote ‘Trump tax cuts,’ or the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was signed into law in 2017.”

According to Baker, the tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are expiring, so if Trump wins, he’s likely to extend those provisions.

“A potential Trump administration would be more pro-business, and there are a number of expiring tax provisions that people really care about that will really impact businesses in our industry,” Baker elaborates. “We would perceive the economy and business to be a higher priority in a Trump administration.”

Voting booth on election day. Photo: adamkaz/iStock / Getty Images Plus/Getty Images

Photo: adamkaz/iStock / Getty Images Plus/Getty Images

Congressional challengers

Of course, the presidential election isn’t the only race Baker has his eye on this year. There are also the House of Representatives and Senate elections.

Currently, the Republicans control the House, and the Democrats control the Senate. According to Baker, the House of Representatives could go either way this year.

“We’re really close to 50/50 [in the House of Representatives],” Baker says. “It’s a coin flip, and no matter which political party wins a majority, it’s going to be really small. And Democrats and Republicans over the past four years have had a real challenge in bringing priorities to the floor of the House.”

On the other hand, Baker thinks the Republicans have a good chance of flipping the Senate. The Republicans only need to flip one or two Senate seats to take control, depending on who wins the presidency.

If Trump wins the presidency, the Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat, which would split the Senate evenly at 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. In the event of a tied vote in the Senate, the tiebreaking vote goes to the vice president, who, if Trump wins, would be JD Vance.

If Harris wins the presidency, Tim Walz, as her vice president, would hold the deciding vote in case of a tie, effectively giving Democrats control of the Senate again. Therefore, if Harris wins, the Republicans need to flip two Senate seats to take control of that chamber.

According to Baker, control of the Senate is likely to come down to three races on election night – West Virginia, Ohio and Montana.

West Virginia

West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, leaving his seat up for grabs. The candidates vying to replace him are Republican Gov. Jim Justice and Democrat Glenn Elliott, mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia.

According to Baker, in current polls, Justice is leading Elliott by over 30 points, which is a solid lead and a good sign for the Republicans.

For Baker, the Republicans will “almost definitely” flip the seat, meaning that Republicans will secure a Senate majority if Trump wins the presidency. But if Harris wins, Republicans will need to flip Ohio or Montana.

Ohio

In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is up for reelection against Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown has a long tenure as Ohio’s senator, and he has name recognition, unlike his challenger Moreno. And although Brown has a three-point lead in the polls, Baker points out that the race might not be that simple.

“Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2020,” Baker explains. “Over the years, we’ve seen less splitting the ticket, meaning we’ve seen less and less of people voting Republican for president and Democrat for Senate.”

So, if Brown wants to stay in office and hold his seat for the Democrats, Baker says he’ll have to work hard to convince those Trump voters to split the ticket and vote for him, which, given their differences in policies, might be a challenge.

Montana

In Montana, another Democratic senator is up for reelection – Jon Tester, who faces Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.

Although Tester has been Montana’s senator since 2006, Baker says the incumbent is down by four points in the polls. Also of note is the fact that Trump won Montana by 16 percent in 2020, so the state is primed to go red again this year.

“That right there is going to be the race that I’m watching on election night,” Baker says. “That race is going to be close, but we believe that it will go for a Republican. And if that happens, we know that at a bare minimum, we’ll have a Republican Senate, which will provide that backstop against the policies that we saw in 2020 and 2022 from a Democratic supermajority.”

Predictions, anyone?

So, what probable outcomes can we expect in November?

“The most likely scenario is that either Republicans win the House, Senate and White House, or there’s divided government,” Baker says. “It’s possible that the Democrats could win all three, but it’s not likely.”

“The cycle begins again”

No matter who wins, Baker says, the NPGA will continue to advance the interests of the propane industry.

This work will include tracking key energy initiatives in Biden’s lame duck session after the election. These initiatives include the Farm Bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, the alternative fuel tax credit and propane initiatives in the Department of Energy. (For coverage of these issues, revisit LP Gas’ coverage of Propane Days in the July 2024 issue.)

Additionally, once the new members of Congress take office in 2025, the NPGA will meet with them in the first 90 days.

“We’ll meet with them and meet with their staff, and introduce them to the propane industry,” Baker explains.

“So, the cycle begins again.”

Read more about propane and politics:

About the Author:

Chris Markham is the managing editor of LP Gas Magazine. Contact him at cmarkham@northcoastmedia.net or 216-363-7920.

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