How the crude war could impact propane prices
April 9, 2020 By Mark Rachal
While Saudi Arabia has called an emergency meeting of OPEC+, there is little doubt that U.S. production growth is very likely to slow in the future.
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While Saudi Arabia has called an emergency meeting of OPEC+, there is little doubt that U.S. production growth is very likely to slow in the future.
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The price of crude has rebounded a little since, but the potential for it to go lower is still present due to demand destruction from COVID-19 and producers not cooperating to limit production.
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Natural gas fundamentals are very important for propane retailers to monitor, since 80 percent of propane supply comes from natural gas processing.
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In this Trader’s Corner, we will focus on the changes in the price relationship between Mont Belvieu and Conway, Kansas, between last year and now.
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Propane/propylene supply is setting five-year highs with each passing week, but it appears to have peaked at 2.361 million bpd during the week ending Aug. 2.
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Why is this important? The increase in LNG export volumes allows the production of more natural gas. More natural gas production means increased propane supplies.
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Propane’s relative value drops to record lows as winter approaches. Such low valuation reflects record-high production that is overwhelming demand.
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For the week ending Sept. 20, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a major jump in U.S. propane demand of 743,000 barrels per day.
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Last week in Trader’s Corner, we took a close look at natural gas production and drilling. Since more…
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