Expectations for propane pricing relative to crude
June 10, 2020 By Mark Rachal
Mark Rachal looks at the relationship between propane and crude, and what to expect going forward based on that relationship.
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Mark Rachal looks at the relationship between propane and crude, and what to expect going forward based on that relationship.
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Each month, LP Gas provides updates on the U.S. propane market, as well as the latest trends. The data for June 2020 focuses on propane inventory and production.
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Over the past five weeks, propane production has been down. Mark Rachal takes a look at the scoreboard for U.S. propane inventory levels compared to prices.
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Inventory builds were late in starting this year, and now that they have, last week’s data showed they can be lighter than normal.
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Even before COVID-19 became a force in the market, Mark Rachal of Cost Management Solutions began to notice some erosion in the growth of propane supply.
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Propane is trading at a record high relative value to WTI crude, which suggests traders see propane fundamentals as more supportive of its price.
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In addition to crude’s collapse, Rachal discusses the propane pricing and supply environment. COVID-19 will have a greater impact on propane supply than it will on propane demand, he says.
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The oversupply in crude is leading to reduced propane supply, which is causing the value of the two commodities to separate.
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Under the current situation where crude is oversupplied on a global basis, U.S. propane supply fundamentals are becoming more price-supportive.
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In recent editions of Trader’s Corner, we discussed the ultra-low price environment for propane, how propane fundamentals have driven prices lower and more.
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