Don’t be overly bearish about propane just yet
August 19, 2020 By Mark Rachal
Developments in crude production and pricing should be watched carefully to see how that translates to propane production and pricing leading up to winter.
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Developments in crude production and pricing should be watched carefully to see how that translates to propane production and pricing leading up to winter.
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As citizens sheltered in place, there was a dramatic shift in crude demand, leading to an extreme oversupply that has most available crude storage nearing capacity.
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In addition to crude’s collapse, Rachal discusses the propane pricing and supply environment. COVID-19 will have a greater impact on propane supply than it will on propane demand, he says.
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While Saudi Arabia has called an emergency meeting of OPEC+, there is little doubt that U.S. production growth is very likely to slow in the future.
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The price of crude has rebounded a little since, but the potential for it to go lower is still present due to demand destruction from COVID-19 and producers not cooperating to limit production.
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October has turned out to be quite frightening for crude and propane bulls. The upward momentum that had been prevalent since April came to a screaming halt.
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A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) examines U.S. propane’s relationship with world propane prices and crude oil prices.
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Any forecast on propane prices begins with trying to determine where crude will be priced.
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Recently, propane prices have not gone beyond 78 to 80 percent of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude’s price.
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WTI crude is an important metric because it gives propane retailers a way to evaluate the value of the product they sell. The comparison provides needed guidance when managing the price risks associated with propane supply.
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