Propane fundamentals supportive of prices
May 5, 2020 By Mark Rachal
Propane is trading at a record high relative value to WTI crude, which suggests traders see propane fundamentals as more supportive of its price.
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Propane is trading at a record high relative value to WTI crude, which suggests traders see propane fundamentals as more supportive of its price.
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The oversupply in crude is leading to reduced propane supply, which is causing the value of the two commodities to separate.
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Under the current situation where crude is oversupplied on a global basis, U.S. propane supply fundamentals are becoming more price-supportive.
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While Saudi Arabia has called an emergency meeting of OPEC+, there is little doubt that U.S. production growth is very likely to slow in the future.
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Retailers could take swap positions each month from now until winter that would allow them to have near the current price next winter.
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The price of crude has rebounded a little since, but the potential for it to go lower is still present due to demand destruction from COVID-19 and producers not cooperating to limit production.
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In this week’s Trader’s Corner, we are going to take a closer look at U.S. propane production. Quite simply, too much production has been the reason that propane prices are under 40 cents at the hubs and near modern-day lows in relative value to WTI crude.
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In this issue of Trader’s Corner, Cost Management Solutions takes a look at how and why propane prices rebounded from January 2016 through October 2018.
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As propane inventory rises, prices tend to fall, and as inventory falls, prices tend to rise. But we also noted some exceptions.
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Why is this important? The increase in LNG export volumes allows the production of more natural gas. More natural gas production means increased propane supplies.
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