Propane pricing will hinge on crude production
June 23, 2020 By Mark Rachal
Producers voluntarily shut production during April, and the associated natural gas liquids loss dramatically impacted propane fundamentals.
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Producers voluntarily shut production during April, and the associated natural gas liquids loss dramatically impacted propane fundamentals.
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Mark Rachal looks at the relationship between propane and crude, and what to expect going forward based on that relationship.
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Inventory builds were late in starting this year, and now that they have, last week’s data showed they can be lighter than normal.
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Propane’s more supportive fundamental picture will keep it from falling to the extremely low values witnessed at the beginning of the year.
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Even before COVID-19 became a force in the market, Mark Rachal of Cost Management Solutions began to notice some erosion in the growth of propane supply.
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Propane is trading at a record high relative value to WTI crude, which suggests traders see propane fundamentals as more supportive of its price.
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In addition to crude’s collapse, Rachal discusses the propane pricing and supply environment. COVID-19 will have a greater impact on propane supply than it will on propane demand, he says.
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The oversupply in crude is leading to reduced propane supply, which is causing the value of the two commodities to separate.
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Under the current situation where crude is oversupplied on a global basis, U.S. propane supply fundamentals are becoming more price-supportive.
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While Saudi Arabia has called an emergency meeting of OPEC+, there is little doubt that U.S. production growth is very likely to slow in the future.
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