Expectations for propane pricing relative to crude
June 10, 2020 By Mark Rachal
Mark Rachal looks at the relationship between propane and crude, and what to expect going forward based on that relationship.
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Mark Rachal looks at the relationship between propane and crude, and what to expect going forward based on that relationship.
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As citizens sheltered in place, there was a dramatic shift in crude demand, leading to an extreme oversupply that has most available crude storage nearing capacity.
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The oversupply in crude is leading to reduced propane supply, which is causing the value of the two commodities to separate.
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Under the current situation where crude is oversupplied on a global basis, U.S. propane supply fundamentals are becoming more price-supportive.
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Natural gas fundamentals are very important for propane retailers to monitor, since 80 percent of propane supply comes from natural gas processing.
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Propane supply was outpacing propane export and domestic demand this spring, which caused inventory to rise, putting downward pressure on prices.
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Propane’s relative value to WTI crude has been falling this year. Comparing propane’s value to crude’s value is…
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Throughout last week, Mont Belvieu’s price correction deepened and its value relative to crude continued to deteriorate.
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All of the gain in U.S. propane’s value in 2018 can be attributed to the stronger pricing environment for crude.
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Last week, U.S. crude production hit 11 million barrels per day for the first time ever.
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